基于正交设计的麻柳林滑坡稳定性敏感分析

刘毅; 赵斌滨; 殷坤龙; 陈丽霞; 桂蕾; 梁鑫

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2018.195

基于正交设计的麻柳林滑坡稳定性敏感分析

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2018.195

刘毅^1,2,,
赵斌滨¹,
殷坤龙^2, ,,
陈丽霞³,
桂蕾²,
梁鑫²

1.
中国电力科学研究院有限公司, 北京 100055
2.
中国地质大学工程学院, 湖北武汉 430074
3.
中国地质大学地球物理与空间信息学院, 湖北武汉 430074

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目 41572292

国家自然科学基金资助项目 41601563

国家自然科学基金资助项目 41572278

国家电网公司科技项目 GCB17201700121

国家重点研发计划 2018YFC0809400

国家自然科学基金资助项目 41641012

详细信息

作者简介:
刘毅(1989-), 男, 博士研究生, 主要从事滑坡灾害机理研究.

通讯作者:
殷坤龙

中图分类号: P694
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-09-15
- 刊出日期: 2019-02-15

Sensitivity Analysis of Maliulin Landslide Stability Based on Orthogonal Design

Liu Yi^{1,2
,},
Zhao Binbin¹,
Yin Kunlong^{2
, ,},
Chen Lixia³,
Gui Lei²,
Liang Xin²

1.
China Electric Power Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100055, China
2.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3.
Institute of Geophysics & Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

摘要

摘要: 以麻柳林滑坡为例，选取了内摩擦角、粘聚力、渗透系数、浸没率、库水位下降速率及降雨量等6个因素进行了正交试验，采用极差分析法进行了稳定性敏感分析.结果表明，滑坡稳定性及其变化率主要由内因决定，库水和降雨对其影响较小.滑坡稳定性对内摩擦角最敏感，其次依次为渗透系数、粘聚力和浸没率.滑坡初始稳定性主要由内摩擦角和粘聚力决定.滑坡稳定性随浸没率的降低而逐步增加，但增幅较小；渗透系数对滑坡稳定系数变化率的影响最大，并存在临界值K₀，渗透系数大于K₀时，滑坡稳定性随渗透系数的增加而增加，渗透系数小于K₀时，滑坡稳定性随渗透系数的降低而降低.
- 敏感性分析 /
- 正交设计 /
- 麻柳林滑坡 /
- 三峡库区 /
- 稳定性
Abstract: Taken Maliulin landslide as a case, the friction angle, cohesive strength, hydraulic conductivity, immersion ratio, reservoir drawdown rate and rainfall are chosen as influential factors and orthogonal experiment was carried out. Sensitivity analysis was performed using range analysis.Results show that the stability of Maliulin landslide is mainly influenced by its self-factors, and the reservoir and rainfall have limited impact on landslide stability. Landslide stability is most sensitive to friction angle, followed by hydraulic conductivity, cohesive strength and immersion ratio. The initial landslide stability is mainly influenced by friction angle and cohesive strength. As the decreasing of immersion ratio, the landslide stability has limited increase. The changed ratio of factor of safety is mainly influenced by hydraulic conductivity in which a critical value K₀ existed. When hydraulic conductivity is greater than K₀, the landslide stability increases with the increasing of permeability coefficient. On the contrary, the landslide stability decreases with the decreasing of hydraulic conductivity when hydraulic conductivity is less than K₀.
- sensitivity analysis /
- orthogonal design /
- Maliulin landslide /
- Three Gorges Reservoir /
- stability

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图 1 麻柳林滑坡平面图

Fig. 1. Plan of Maliulin landslide

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图 2 麻柳林滑坡深部位移监测结果

Fig. 2. Results of deep displacement monitored by inclinometer

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图 3 计算浸没率的概化模型

Fig. 3. A generalized model for calculating immersion ratio

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图 4 库水位下降阶段调度模型及降雨加载位置

Fig. 4. Calculation model for reservoir drawdown and rainfall

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图 5 麻柳林滑坡计算模型与参数

Fig. 5. Calculation model and soil properties for stability analysis

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图 6 各因素变化对滑坡稳定性的影响

Fig. 6. Effect on landslide stability by various factors

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图 7 各因素水平变化时对滑坡稳定性变化率的影响

Fig. 7. Effect on changed ratio of factor of safety by various factors

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图 8 渗透系数K一定时滑坡稳定性变化特点

a.K₁水平稳定性变化率η; b.K₃水平稳定性变化率η; c.K₅水平稳定性变化率η; d.K₁水平稳定性Fs

Fig. 8. Characteristics of landslide stability under certain permeability coefficient K

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图 9 内摩擦角与滑坡稳定性的关系

a.内摩擦角与初始稳定性关系; b.内摩擦角与最终稳定性关系

Fig. 9. Relationship between internal friction angle and landslide stability

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表 1 万州3 d降雨量降雨重现期(单位：mm)

Table 1. The extreme rainfall of three consecutive days in Wanzhou district

重现期	第一阶段 1/1~4/20	第二阶段 4/21~6/20	第三阶段 6/21~9/30	第四阶段 10/1~12/31
5年	50.32	108.61	167.15	64.37
10年	61.58	133.21	208.48	76.48
20年	72.27	157.23	249.16	87.82
50年	85.85	188.44	302.32	102.08
100年	95.84	211.76	342.22	112.50

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表 2 正交试验因素水平

Table 2. Factor levels of orthogonal experiment

水平	粘聚力 c(kPa)	内摩擦角 φ(°)	渗透系数 K(m/s)	浸没率α (%)	重现期T (a)	下降速率 V(m/d)
1	15	10	1E-4	77.85	5	0.3
2	19	12	5E-5	72.85	10	0.6
3	23	14	1E-5	67.85	20	0.9
4	27	16	5E-6	62.85	50	1.2
5	31	18	1E-6	57.85	100	1.5

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表 3 正交设计方案及计算结果

Table 3. Calculation scheme and results of the orthogonal experiment

试验序号	工况	c	φ	K	α	V	T	稳定系数Fs	变化率η(%)
1	A1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.81	11.42
2	B1	1	2	2	2	2	2	0.91	7.16
3	C1	1	3	3	3	3	3	0.95	-1.93
4	D1	1	4	4	4	4	4	1.06	-5.61
5	E1	1	5	5	5	5	5	1.17	-7.71
6	C2	2	1	2	3	4	5	0.81	6.19
7	D2	2	2	3	4	5	1	0.88	-3.24
8	E2	2	3	4	5	1	2	0.99	-5.08
9	A2	2	4	5	1	2	3	0.98	-11.60
10	B2	2	5	1	2	3	4	1.40	10.79
11	E3	3	1	3	5	2	4	0.80	-3.53
12	A3	3	2	4	1	3	5	0.84	-7.70
13	B3	3	3	5	2	4	1	0.94	-10.50
14	C3	3	4	1	3	5	2	1.30	10.67
15	D3	3	5	2	4	1	3	1.45	9.13
16	B4	4	1	4	2	5	3	0.78	-8.14
17	C4	4	2	5	3	1	4	0.87	-9.86
18	D4	4	3	1	4	2	5	1.21	9.79
19	E4	4	4	2	5	3	1	1.33	6.66
20	A4	4	5	3	1	4	2	1.27	-3.93
21	D5	5	1	5	4	3	2	0.81	-9.27
22	E5	5	2	1	5	4	3	1.11	8.11
23	A5	5	3	2	1	5	4	1.15	3.41
24	B5	5	4	3	2	1	5	1.20	-3.53
25	C5	5	5	4	3	2	1	1.29	-5.69

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表 4 稳定系数极差分析结果

Table 4. Range analysis of factor of safety

均值	c	φ	K	α	V	T
Fs1	0.98	0.80	1.16	1.01	1.06	1.05
Fs2	1.01	0.92	1.13	1.04	1.04	1.06
Fs3	1.06	1.05	1.02	1.04	1.07	1.05
Fs4	1.09	1.17	0.99	1.08	1.04	1.05
Fs5	1.11	1.32	0.95	1.08	1.05	1.05
R_j	0.13	0.52	0.21	0.07	0.03	0.01
改变率	13.62	64.33	21.89	6.83	2.82	0.73
敏感性	φ> K > c > α > V > T

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表 5 稳定系数变化率极差分析结果

Table 5. Range analysis of changed ratio of factor of safety

均值	c	φ	K	α	V	T
η1	0.67	-0.67	10.16	-1.68	0.42	-0.27
η2	-0.59	-1.10	6.51	-0.84	-0.77	-0.09
η3	-0.38	-0.86	-3.23	-0.12	-0.29	-0.89
η4	-1.10	-0.68	-6.45	0.16	-1.15	-0.96
η5	-1.39	0.52	-9.79	-0.31	-1.00	-0.59
R_j	2.06	1.62	19.94	1.84	1.57	0.87
敏感性	K > c > α > φ> V > T

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表 6 各因素对滑坡稳定性影响曲线的线性拟合

Table 6. Linear fitting of various factors on landslide stability

因素	线性拟合公式	R²值
φ	y=0.128 4x+0.666 5	0.999 2
K	y=-0.055 4x+1.21 8	0.946 1
c	y=0.034 6x+0.948 1	0.978 0
α	y=0.017 1x+1.000 4	0.884 2
V	y=-0.001 8x+1.057 1	0.044 0
T	y=0.000 1x+1.051 4	0.003 7

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