Development and Distribution Characteristics of Debris Flow in Zhejiang Province and Its Regional Forecast
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摘要: 泥石流灾害是我国东南地区引起群死群伤的主要自然灾害，目前对其发育规律和区域预报的研究程度还较低.基于浙江省小流域泥石流地质灾害调查评价成果数据，开展沟谷泥石流发育特征和时空分布规律研究，研究表明，浙江省泥石流发生时期集中在台汛期和梅汛期，其中台汛期发生的泥石流占总数的70.1%，梅汛期占27.4%，可见台风诱因显著；泥石流在浙江省三大降雨区，即台风雨主控区、梅雨主控区和梅台雨兼容区的空间分布具有明显差异性，总体上东南沿海一带台风雨控制区分布密度要大于西部和北部地区，而梅汛期发生泥石流则比较明显集中在西部地区.在此基础上，分别求取了梅汛期和台汛期的浙江省东南地层区和杨子地层区引发泥石流的降雨阈值；选择泥石流易发程度区划图、24h预报雨量和前期有效降雨量3个因子，以小流域作为评价单元，基于可拓理论方法，构建了泥石流危险性区域预报模型.采用灾害强度R值和危险性等级面积百分比累加-泥石流频度百分比累加曲线两种方法，以2004年“云娜”台风期间和2006年6月份梅雨期发生的泥石流灾害样本开展模型合理性检验，证明预测结果合理.Abstract: Debris flow is one of the major geohazards that may lead to mass injuries or casualties in Southeast China, however, studies on the development law and predictions need to be furthered. This study presents the characteristics of debris flow development and spatial-temporal distribution in Zhejiang Province based on the results of small drainage geohazards survey. It is found that the debris flows mainly occur in Meiyu period (i.e. 27.4%) and typhoon season (i.e. 70.1%). Generally, the debris flows in typhoon season are mostly distributed in southeast Zhejiang, whereas those in Meiyu period are distributed in west. Based on that, rainfall thresholds of different raining seasons have been determined. Separate forecasting models based on extension method have been established taking small drainage as assessment unit, where the susceptibility map, 24-hour forecast rainfall and effective antecedent precipitation are employed as model inputs. Two debris flows, occurred in Yunna typhoon period in 2004 and in Meiyu period in June, 2006, were selected to validate the established forecasting models. The results in terms of hazard intensity (R) and receiver operating characteristiccurve (ROC) confirm the feasibility of the proposed scheme for debris flow forecasting.
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图 1 浙江省近年来造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失的泥石流灾害
a.2004年“云娜”台风引发的乐清龙西仙人坦泥石流；b.2004年“云娜”台风引发的乐清仙溪白岩山下屋泥石流；c.2006年“桑美”台风引发的庆元县荷地镇石磨下村泥石流；d.2007年“韦帕”台风引发的青田县小舟山乡乌马沙泥石流；e.2013年“菲特”台风引发的上虞区曹娥街道朱山头村泥石流；f.2012年8月10日局地特大暴雨引发嵊州市长乐镇寨岭头自然村“8·10”泥石流；g.2014年6月梅汛期局地强降雨引发的遂昌县黄沙腰镇大熟村特大泥石流；h.2014年6月梅汛期局地强降雨引发的龙泉市龙渊街道一村泥石流；i.2015年“苏迪罗”台风引发的平阳县顺溪镇石柱村泥石流
Fig. 1. The major debris flows causing severe casualties and property losses occurred in Zhejiang in recent years
图 4 不同影响因素下泥石流频度分布
a.相对高差，①＜100 m，② 100~200 m，③ 200~300 m，④ 300~400 m，⑤ 400~500 m，⑥ 500~600 m，⑦ 600~700 m，⑧ 700~800 m，⑨＞800 m；b.山坡坡度，①＜10°，② 10°~15°，③ 15°~20°，④ 20°~25°，⑤ 25°~30°，⑥ 30°~35°，⑦ 35°~40°，⑧ 40°~45°，⑨ 45°~50°，⑩ 50°~55°，＞55°；c.纵坡降，①＜100，② 100~200，③ 200~300，④ 300~400，⑤ 400~500，⑥＞500；d.主沟长度，①＜0.4 m，② 0.4~0.8 m，③ 0.8~1.2 m，④ 1.2~1.6 m，⑤ 1.6~2.0 m，⑥ 2.0~2.4 m，⑦ 2.4~2.8 m，⑧ 2.8~3.2 m，⑨＞3.2 m；e.流域面积，①＜0.5 m2，② 0.5~1.0 m2，③ 1~1.5 m2，④ 1.5~2.0 m2，⑤ 2.0~2.5 m2，⑥ 2.5~3.0 m2，⑦ 3.0~3.5 m2，⑧ 3.5~5.0 m2，⑨ 5.0~10.0 m2，⑩＞10.0 m2；f.距断层距离，①＜0.5 km，② 0.5~1.0 km，③ 1.0~1.5 km，④ 1.5~2.0 km，⑤＞2.0 km；g.工程地质岩组，H.火山碎屑岩，S.砂岩、砂砾岩、泥岩等碎屑岩，Q.侵入岩，R.熔岩，B.变质岩，T.碳酸盐岩；h.在工程地质岩组中的分布密度，横坐标代号同(g)
Fig. 4. The frequency ratios of debris flows in various controlling factors
图 6 月平均降雨量(1990—2007年)和月平均泥石流发生数量频度分布
Fig. 6. The monthly precipitation (1990—2007) and frequency ratio of debris flows in each month
图 8 梅汛期泥石流前期有效降雨量和当日降雨量关系
Fig. 8. The relationship of effective antecedent precipitation and present day precipitation of debris flows occurred in plum rains season
图 9 2004年“云娜”台风(a)和2006年6月24日梅汛期(b)泥石流危险性预测结果
Fig. 9. Predicted hazard zones of debris flows in Yunna typhoon period (a) and in plum rains season in June 24 th, 2006(b)
图 10 泥石流区域预报模型预测率检验曲线
Fig. 10. Thepredictionrateofthedebris flow forecast models using area undercurve
表 1 泥石流预报标准物元模型
Table 1. Standard matter element model for debris flow hazard prediction
分区 “梅汛期”HX区*标准物元 “梅汛期”YZ区*标准物元 “台汛期”标准物元 可能性小 $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较小} & W & { < 0, 1 > }\\ {} & J & { < 0, 50 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 0, 100 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较小} & W & { < 0, 1 > }\\ {} & J & { < 0, 30 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 0, 50 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较小} & W & { < 0, 1 > }\\ {} & J & { < 0, 100 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 0, 100 > } \end{array}} \right] $ 可能性较大 $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较大} & W & { < 1, 2 > }\\ {} & J & { < 50, 75 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 100, 150 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较大} & W & { < 1, 2 > }\\ {} & J & { < 30, 60 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 80, 120 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性较大} & W & { < 1, 2 > }\\ {} & J & { < 10, 150 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 100, 150 > } \end{array}} \right] $ 可能性大 $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性大} & W & { < 2, 3 > }\\ {} & J & { < 75, 100 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 150, 200 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性大} & W & { < 2, 3 > }\\ {} & J & { < 60, 100 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 120, 150 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $\left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性大} & W & { < 2, 3 > }\\ {} & J & { < 150, 200 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 150, 200 > } \end{array}} \right] $ 可能性很大 $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性很大} & W & { < 3, 4 > }\\ {} & J & { < 100, 150 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 200, 300 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性很大} & W & { < 3, 4 > }\\ {} & J & { < 100, 250 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 150, 250 > } \end{array}} \right] $ $ \left[ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {可能性很大} & W & { < 3, 4 > }\\ {} & J & { < 200, 500 > }\\ {} & Y & { < 200, 500 > } \end{array}} \right] $ *注：HX区.华夏古陆区；YZ区.扬子地台区；台汛期不分区，整个浙江省范围统一考虑. 
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表 2 采用灾害强度指标R检验预测结果
Table 2. Verification of the debris flow forecasting model using hazardintensity, R
分区等级 分区面积占总面积比例(%) 分区内发生灾害点占总灾害点比例(%) 灾害强度R 2006年梅汛期 “云娜”台风 2006年梅汛期 “云娜”台风 2006年梅汛期 “云娜”台风 可能性小 71.4 80.9 0.0 5.6 0.00 0.01 可能性较大 24.3 14.4 20.0 16.7 0.82 0.21 可能性大 3.2 2.2 30.0 5.6 9.35 0.46 可能性很大 1.1 2.5 50.0 72.2 45.38 5.10
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